From Yardstick to Gyroscope (ANT 8500) - Interdisciplinary Methods for the Long-Term Study of Social-Ecological Systems

From Yardstick to Gyroscope -
Interdisciplinary Methods for the Long-Term Study of Social-Ecological Systems
Complex Systems: Household dynamics, agent-based modeling, and complexity
Instructor Tom Evans
Date February 18
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Agent-based models (ABMs) originated as relative abstractions or even ‘toy’ implementations, but have grown to become one of the more common modeling tools in the Human Dimensions of Global Change research community. The benefit of ABMs is the ability to a) incorporate heterogeneity, especially agent heterogeneity, in the model specification, and b) construct interactions between agents to explore how local-level behaviors in aggregate produce specific regional or macro scale patterns. Is agent-based modeling a new, powerful direction in HDGC research? Or is it just a ‘fad’ technique that is currently in its heyday, but likely to lose attention at the expense of the next big thing?

In this session we will discuss the advantages and disadvantages of ABMs as compared to other modeling approaches (e.g. cellular automata, dynamic systems models, spatial regression). Critically, we will address how ABMs fit in an integrated research framework that builds on what can be considered more traditional methods including household surveys, statistical analysis, and GIS/RS. A key component to this discussion will be the role of model calibration and validation in the development of ABMs. Lastly, we will discuss tools used to design and implement ABMS (e.g., Agent Analyst, RePast, Netlogo) and how to lower the startup costs associated with building an ABM.

READINGS
Brown, D. G. 2006. "Agent-based models," in The Earth's Changing Land: An Encyclopedia of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change. Edited by H. Geist, pp. 7-13. Westport CT: Greenwood Publishing Group. Abstract | Publication

Brown, D. G., S. E. Page, R. Riolo, M. Zellner, and W. Rand. 2005. Path dependence and the validation of agent-based spatial models of land use. International Journal of Geographical Information Science 19:153-174. Abstract | Publication

Evans, T. P., and Kelley, H. 2004. Multi-scale analysis of a household level agent-based model of landcover change. Journal of Environmental Management 72:57-72. Abstract | Publication

Huigen, M. G. A. 2004. First principles of the MameLuke multi-actor modeling framework for land use change, illustrated with a Philippine case study. Journal of Environmental Management 72:5-21. Abstract | Publication

Manson, S., and T. P. Evans. in press. Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science. (paper not yet available)

Parker, D. C., S. M. Manson, M. A. Janssen, M. J. Hoffmann, and P. Deadman. 2003. Multi-Agent System Models for the Simulation of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change: A Review. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 93:1-43. Abstract | Publication