Past Research 1996-2002

P-IC. Socio-economic Drivers of Land-use Change
Summary: 
Our current work focuses on explaining patterns of land use in the southern Appalachians using classical land use models, i.e. von Thunen-type land allocation models which will be extended to explicitly address spatial factors. This work addresses the modern era of land-use dating to the 1940s and compares land use patterns across time periods.

Historic and current land and resource uses are among the most direct and the most important forces affecting the composition and productivity of southern Appalachian ecosystems. Land uses are determined by both broad scale factors such as market prices for timber and agricultural products and local factors such as the topography, soil type, and location of a site. All of these factors are the basic inputs to landowners' decision making, through which they interact to define land use and vegetative patterns that vary over both space and time.

Understanding how these human decisions define landscape structure is essential for:
(1) Identifying ecosystem risks.
(2) Defining strategies for achieving ecosystem level goals.

We have extended this work to:
-Test how land use options at one point in time are influenced by the history of human endeavors at a site
-Test for recent structural changes in patterns of land-use related to increased recreational and aesthetic values
  and the relative importance of market and non-market factors in land-use choice
-Develop predictive models to forecast the likely location of future land-use changes

The goal of all the projects is to link historic land uses in the southern Appalachians to current day terrestrial and aquatic diversity. In addition, predictive models of future land use change will be linked with both population and carbon cycling studies/models to predict the potential effects of future land use change on biodiversity and carbon storage, respectively. (Sections II.C and II.D).

Previous Research on Topic (Literature Search)

Metadata:
Regionalization Projects Metadata
GIS Metadata

Data:
GIS Data

Investigators and Collaborators:
David Wear
David Newman
GJ Arthaud
 

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