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Current Research 2002-2008 Current Initiative III: Forecasting Ecosystem Responses to Variation in the Socio-Natural Template Summary: Our goal in forecasting is to incorporate the complex interactions between socioeconomic and bio-geophysical components of southern Appalachian ecosystems, and reflect the temporally and spatially explicit linkages between land-use legacies and watershed processes. Research in the Coweeta LTER program has linked land-use changes and legacies to their ecological consequences for the distribution of habitats and species from plot- to landscape scales (Turner et al. 1996, Bolstad et al. 1998, Clark et al. 1998, Pearson et al. 1998, Wear and Bolstad 1998, Grossman et al. 2002). In the proposed research we will construct explicit forecast scenarios drawing from our observational data networks and experimental research to move from hypothesis testing to real-world applications that could include conservation planning (Baker 1989, Bender et al. 1998); landscape management and design (Baskent 1997); and the assessment of potential changes from land development or climate change (Baker et al. 1991, Nielson et al. 1992, He et al. 1999). Basic research at fine scales, which is a critical step in generating the scientific knowledge for building scenarios and modeling, seldom provides the requisite knowledge on interactions and processes required for planning and decision-making (Carpenter 1996, Clark et al. 2000). Several useful attempts have been made to link social factors to deforestation and forest cover change (Wilkie and Finn 1988, Baker 1992, Dale 1994, Gilruth et al. 1995, Gaston et al. 1998). However, land-cover change is typically used as a surrogate for land use so that the result is more properly a landscape–transition model (Dale and Rauscher 1994). Research by Coweeta investigators integrating ecological and socioeconomic factors within a probabilistic framework (Turner et al. 1996, Wear and Bolstad 1998) have already taken the first step toward incorporating decision-making to forecast models to make them more realistic of the process of change. We will take the next step in the proposed research by focusing on the development of forecasts that incorporate feedbacks between ecological and socioeconomic modules (Lee et al. 1992, Riebsame and Parton 1994). Our proposed efforts will focus on the conceptual and technical integration of research results from Initiatives 1 and 2, since the current trend in forecasting is clearly toward multiscale, multi-process models. Our goal in forecasting is to incorporate the complex interactions between socioeconomic and bio-geophysical components of southern Appalachian ecosystems, and reflect the temporally and spatially explicit linkages between land-use legacies and watershed processes. Research activities in this initiative will concentrate on the Little Tennessee and French Broad drainages where we have the greatest control (and information) over temporal, spatial, and decision-making processes. This will provide us with the greatest assurance that our forecast scenarios incorporate our best scientific understanding. Since important questions remain unresolved about the necessary content or validation of forecasts, we will carry out limited empirical validation of the model through studies of the response-trajectory of streams to changing land-use, how stream systems respond to contrasting rates of suburbanization, and the social valuation of specific land management goals.
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